The Cascabel Copper-Gold Mine Is Expected to Commence Production in 2028, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, November 28, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $10,910/mt overnight. It initially maintained a "W" pattern, touching a low of $10,892.5/mt, then the price center rose all the way to a high of $10,956/mt, finally closing at $10,930/mt, down 0.21%. Trading volume reached 11,000 lots and open interest reached 330,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2601 contract opened at 86,800 yuan/mt overnight, touched a low of 86,600 yuan/mt at the opening, then fluctuated upward to a high of 87,100 yuan/mt, finally consolidating sideways to close at 87,050 yuan/mt, down 0.02%. Trading volume reached 29,000 lots and open interest reached 209,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On November 27, SolGold accelerated the development progress of its Cascabel copper-gold project in northern Ecuador. Preliminary engineering is scheduled to start in 2026, with first production expected in 2028.
(2) On November 27, according to market news, Chile's Codelco offered its 2026 CIF Taiwan copper cathode long-term contract at a premium of $330/mt, up $245/mt from the 2025 premium of $85/mt.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On November 27, SMM's spot #1 copper cathode prices against the front-month 2512 contract were at a premium of 10-200 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 105 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 86,910 to 87,260 yuan/mt. In early morning trading, the SHFE copper 2512 contract briefly surged to 87,140 yuan/mt, then fluctuated between 86,880 and 87,080 yuan/mt. The inter-month spread fluctuated between a contango of 80-50 yuan/mt. The import loss for SHFE copper widened to over 1,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, on the last day of the month, some demand for cargoes with invoices dated this month is still expected, but transactions for cargoes with invoices dated next month are anticipated to be relatively mediocre.

(2) Guangdong: On November 27, spot #1 copper cathode prices in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a premium of 80-160 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 120 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 10 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 87,060 yuan/mt, up 355 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 86,950 yuan/mt, up 355 yuan/mt from the previous day. Overall, with inventories falling for two consecutive days, suppliers held prices firm for shipments, and spot premiums remained high.

(3) Imported Copper: On November 27, warrant prices were $26-38/mt, QP December, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. B/L prices were $42-54/mt, QP December, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was at -$6/mt to $8/mt, QP December, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late November and early December.

(4) Secondary Copper: As of 11:30 on November 27, the futures closing price was 86,860 yuan/mt, up 190 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 105 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials increased by 300 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 78,700-78,900 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,135 yuan/mt, down 104 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,680 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, secondary copper rod producers reported very few transactions in the secondary copper rod market over the recent four trading days. Traders also faced difficulties selling goods; even after lowering prices by 100-200 yuan/mt below the market price, secondary copper rod still found few transactions. Currently, suspended secondary copper rod producers indicated that if the government fails to provide a subsidy response after New Year's Day, they will start the Chinese New Year holiday early.

(5) Inventory: On November 26, LME copper cathode inventories increased by 675 mt to 157,175 mt. On November 27, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 3,952 mt to 35,873 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, affected by the Thanksgiving holiday, market trading was relatively sluggish, with attention on upcoming US data next week and continued trading of the probability of a December interest rate cut. Additionally, Putin stated that the final version of the peace agreement is not yet determined, leading to a rebound in market risk-off sentiment. On the fundamentals side, supply of both imported and domestic cargo arrivals decreased. Demand side, purchasing sentiment declined due to rising copper prices. Overall, copper prices are expected to find support today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]